Abstract:
The paper focuses on the analysis of the quality of macroeconomic forecasts, as well
as on general issues of the functioning of the system of macroeconomic forecasting in
the Republic of Kazakhstan. It provides a comparative analysis of errors of initial and
revised macroeconomic forecasts of the real sector of economy indicators. To assess
forecast accuracy, the authors use the world’s most widespread measures, such as the
mean error and the mean absolute percentage error, as well as official statistical data
and records. The overall forecast consistency and congruence of assumptions on the
dynamics of indicators of the real sector and fiscal policy are estimated using the basic
identities of the System of National Accounts. The paper also considers institutional
aspects of the system of macroeconomic forecasting in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The authors conclude that revised forecasts, with the exception of monetary policy
indicators, exhibit a smaller error, which can indicate a need for greater coordination
of public authorities in the process of preparing forecasts, developing the system of
independent assessment of their quality and improving their transparency.
